“What If It’s 1982 Again?” – Thoughts on Gold and My Recent Trip To Europe – Chris Berry

Jeremy here,

Last week I had the opportunity to travel through Germany and Switzerland with 15 public companies. The trip was hosted by The Canadian Securities Exchange and Zimtu Capital Corp. Our good friend Chris Berry was a keynote speaker and acted as an MC during the presentations and seminars.

I have linked his recap below of the trip and his EU views below.

Enjoy,


Read on discoveryinvesting.com here

By Chris Berry (@cberry1)

For a PDF copy of this note, click here.

Europe has always fascinated me. A thousand years of rich history confront you regardless of the country or city you visit. Opportunities to talk to Europeans from all walks of life regarding their views on current events or the global financial markets put in a unique historical context are worth the time and effort it takes to plan a trip.

My recent trip to Frankfurt, Munich, Zürich, and Geneva was no exception. I went as a keynote speaker on the Fourth Annual Zimtu Capital Bus Tour where I spoke in each city and also served as a moderator and emcee. Accompanying Zimtu were a well-rounded stable of companies representing resources as varied as diamonds, potash, coal, and uranium. Representatives from the Canadian Securities Exchange along with several CSE-listed companies were also in attendance, and as these companies were not natural resource-focused (vertical farming, biotech, high tech), it gave this year’s tour a more diverse flavor than in years past. Everyone – from institutional and individual investors to the companies themselves – had a unique opportunity to view the small cap discovery sector in a different light.

That said, this note focuses on European investors opinions of the resource sector now that we are three years into what feels like a seemingly relentless malaise. My experience in Germany wasn’t unlike that of years past. The typical investor appears more interested in owning the physical silver or gold bullion than mining shares (although this isn’t universally the case). This is interesting, indeed, relative to the overwhelming opinion of analysts that deflation is a more likely scenario for the EU in general.

While I would argue that many individuals I know have accepted the reality of lower precious metals prices for the foreseeable future – many people I spoke with in Germany thought that gold and silver should be – and would be – trading higher soon. The rationale for this wasn’t always clear as the usual arguments about manipulation and looming hyperinflation were trotted out while deflationary trends so evident were not given much credence.

I did an interview at the Munich Precious Metals show with Miningscout which you can see here

The meetings in Switzerland were notable for their dynamism, commentary, and questions from the attendees. The discussion of the Swiss gold referendum (20% backing of the Swiss currency by physical gold) loomed large over the conferences with the audience split 50/50 on it passing. The main issue wasn’t the disbelief that the precious metals and mining company shares were falling. This appeared to be an accepted reality and the question was more of “What do we do given this new lower metals price environment?”

One exchange I had in particular stood out. While talking about gold and silver, my counterpart turned and asked:

“What if this is 1982 again?”

 The chart below explains her fears and provides context. 

After a parabolic boom in the gold price in the late 1970s, the gold price collapsed (circled in black) and remained range bound until the early 2000’s. I add this chart not to invite scrutiny from gold bugs, but to demonstrate this woman’s concerns. If we are indeed at a point in the gold cycle resembling 1982, this has profound implications for your gold and currency investments. What will you do as a gold investor if the gold price remains flat for the next 20 years?

For the record, while I think gold will tread water in the near-term, I don’t believe were in another 1982-type scenario. The global economy is much more integrated than ever before, and is drowning in debt and derivatives. I think many now view gold as its own asset class rather than its traditional role as a hedge against inflation. In this way, gold is a victim of its own success, as is silver. Days where the price of gold rises or falls $20 per ounce are looked upon as trading opportunities and the long-term rationale for owning precious metals or company shares has taken a back seat. This type of thinking is dangerous. If anything, the concern should be for higher, rather than lower gold prices based on the potential for widespread economic instability and Central Banks unable to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system fast enough to prevent inflation.

However, that’s not the casein Europe. This has everything to do with Central Banks around the world jawboning the equity markets higher with zero interest rates and QE and talking down inflationary expectations. Regular readers will know that we are at least in the disinflation and possibly in the deflation camp. While in Europe, I made this case to each audience. With a collapsing velocity of money, excess labor, capital, and dormant liquidity choking the global financial system, excess inflation (and by extension the need for the precious metals) is currently a distant reality. 

The Euro Zone is struggling to generate sufficient economic growth and is clearly fighting disinflation rather than generating inflation, China continues to moderate its growth rate, and Japan has just entered its fourth recession since 2008. Who will serve as the engine of global demand to ignite wage pressures and the inflation Central Bankers covet? How did we get to this point where Central Banks covet inflation but can’t seem to generate it 

The Japanese battle with deflation began with a stock market collapse in 1989 as a result of a real estate bubble. When banks in Japan curbed their lending, wages halted their climb and sufficient organic economic growth has never really returned. This scenario should sound familiar to everyone in the US as almost the exact same scenario has unfolded there since 2008. One must believe that Federal Reserve officials in the United States are watching the developments in Japan and the failure of their own version of QE (Abenomics) to generate growth with increasing concern.

As I said before, I don’t yet believe we’re at another “1982-style” inflection point for a number of reasons. Regardless of that, turning on the television and watching the price of gold and oil fall and assuming the entire commodity complex is suffering the same fate is a big mistake. I also made this point to my audiences.

Despite what the doom and gloom crowd would have you believe, the global economy has never been more prosperous and generally speaking living standards are still on the ascent. It’s important to remember that the global economy is, on balance, still growing. Scientists and entrepreneurs all over the world are at work in R&D labs focused on finding solutions to some of life’s most pressing issues. Finding those high growth opportunities is exactly what small cap disruptive discovery investing is about and my travels in Asia and Europe have reinforced this view.

I’ll be speaking about these themes at Mines & Money in London Dec 1 – 4. Please reach out if you’ll be there.  

The material herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to and does not constitute the rendering of investment advice or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The foregoing discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (The Act).  In particular when used in the preceding discussion the words “plan,” confident that, believe, scheduled, expect, or intend to, and similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements subject to the safe harbor created by the ACT.  Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any of the forward looking statements.  Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to future events and financial performance of the company which are inherently uncertain and actual events and / or results may differ materially.  In addition we may review investments that are not registered in the U.SWe cannot attest to nor certify the correctness of any information in this note. Please consult your financial advisor and perform your own due diligence before considering any companies mentioned in this informational bulletin.

The information in this note is provided solely for users’ general knowledge and is provided “as is”. We at the Disruptive Discoveries Journal make no warranties, expressed or implied, and disclaim and negate all other warranties, including without limitation, implied warranties or conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement of intellectual property or other violation of rights. Further, we do not warrant or make any representations concerning the use, validity, accuracy, completeness, likely results or reliability of any claims, statements or information in this note or otherwise relating to such materials or on any websites linked to this note. I own no shares in any company mentioned in this note.  

The content in this note is not intended to be a comprehensive review of all matters and developments, and we assume no responsibility as to its completeness or accuracy. Furthermore, the information in no way should be construed or interpreted as – or as part of – an offering or solicitation of securities. No securities commission or other regulatory authority has in any way passed upon this information and no representation or warranty is made by us to that effect. For a more detailed disclaimer, please see the disclaimer on our website

Read on discoveryinvesting.com here

Tinkerine to showcase 3D Printers at #Canvest14

 

3D printing is far from new but a surge of expiring patents is breathing new life and excitement into the technology. Manufacturers and other industries have been using the technology for decades, but finally new, young, and innovative companies like Vancouver-based Tinkerine Studios Ltd are building a future for the unique machines. 

While printing figurines and trinkets can be temporarily cool, the novelty has worn off, making now an opportune time to be looking at 3D printing companies as investments. Their potentials are so vast, they are almost unthinkable. 

Consider that you could have invested in Apple. Would you want to invest after the iPhone 4S was released in hopes of small gains on new models, or would you want to be in before theiPod came out and see the company grow for years? (See Michael Berry’s Discovery Investing for more on this concept) That’s where 3D printing is at - the equivalent of an iPod introduction stage in its development.

3D printers have been comparatively expensive, but the costs are coming down and the printing material is improving. Its applications in the consumer markets could very well one day be a rival for Walmart or other big box stores. Why drive to the store when you can print it at home? Spatulas, mini-sticks, ping pong balls, water bottles, candle holders, and eventually even furniture, could all be printed at home.


3D printing may also hold a more industrial purpose. Printing parts in remote mining or drilling camps or even in space could save hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars a day instead of waiting for shipping small parts. Having a 3D printer on site would make replacing a piece as easy as downloading the blueprint. While the ability to print with materials strong enough for heavy equipment is far off, we can recognize the immense potential for the technology.

Tinkerine (TTD.V) is currently producing some sleek 3printers that are available to the public. It will be showcasing some of them at the upcoming Canadian Investors Conference this Sunday and Monday June 1 & 2 in Vancouver. Tinkerine is generating cash flow and continuing R&D. Its goal is to make the printers more mainstream and get them in the hands of the public. 

This industry is definitely laying the foundation for something that will help shape our future and could see tremendous growth. There is no doubt that 3D printing will become common practice, thereby creating many investment opportunities.Come to the Canadian Investor Conference this Sunday and Monday to talk to Tinkerine about its plans and to check out some awesome printers!
About the Conference: The Canadian Investor Conference will be Canada’s leading diversified investment event, held in Vancouver, Canada. Various industries will come together for this 2-day event to cover Technology, Real Estate, Mineral Exploration, Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Life Sciences and Energy Metals. Top industry analysts, newsletter writers, c-suite executives, hedge fund managers, trends forecasters and finance celebrities will cover speculative and direct investments and strategies, economic outlook and macro trends. The tradeshow floor will host over 100 company booths, 3 speaker halls and an expected attendance of thousands of nationals and international investors.
*This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own due diligence before making any investment. Speculative investing may incur substantial losses. Neither the author or Cambridge House holds any equity in the listed companies.

Investing in Mineral Discoveries – Steve Todoruk, March 2014

As complicated as investing in junior mining companies can be it can also be broken down to be very simple. Buy, wait for a discovery, sell high. Reanalyze during studies, buy back, wait for production to to ramp up. Unfortunately it’s not that simple. Geology is not a perfect science and understanding financial markers is far from simple.

Luckily we have experts who spend everyday studying and analyzing the model and companies.

Steve Todoruk, broker and geologist, discusses his approach to investing in junior resource discovery plays. (19:21)

 

Cambridge House International Inc. is not an investment advisor or dealer. We do not provide investment advice and content posted should not be the basis of any decision. Please practice your own due diligence.

 

Bitcoin: An Evolution in Money and Banking w/ Jeff Berwick

Bitcoin came out like a rogue wave. Slowly building in the horizon and before we knew it was over are heads and crashing down all around us. Now that the froth seems to have receded the waters have calmed and looks to have temporally found peace between $500 – $600 usd. (View the chart here)

Jeff Berwick, regular speaker at Cambridge conferences and self proclaimed financial freedom fighter, has been an advocate of the crypto currency since it’s early days. Jeff played a roll in getting Bitcoin ATM’s into the public and has boasted six figure USD transactions using the crypto-currency.

Jeff talked on “Let’s Talk Bitcoin” about the crypto, the coming end of modern finanical systems, how governments should approach the concept and his favourite, freedom.

Enjoy,

How Bitcoin Stacks Against Traditional Investment Interests

It’s no secret Bitcoin has become a world wide phenomenon. It has grabbed peoples and media attention at explosive rates. I thought this was an interesting chart stacking it’s online interest against more conventional investment terms.

Follow the Bitcoin price roller coaster here

(Gold category is for “Gold as an investment” as determined by google).

Mining asteroids in outer space! – Chris Lewicki w/ Bridgette Anderson

Chris Lewicki, a former NASA scientist and currently the president and chief engineer of Planetary Resources, chats with Cambridge House Live’s Bridgitte Anderson about opportunities for mining in outer space. Planetary Resources is financially backed by figures ranging from movie director James Cameron and Virgin’s Richard Branson to the founders of Google.

 

US has real challenges ahead economically – Michael Berry Video Interview

Michael Berry, the founder of DiscoveryInvesting.com, chats with Cambridge House Live’s Bridgitte Anderson about the opportunities he sees for investors within the current economic climate. He also shares his insights on the current economic plight of the United States – essential watching for discerning investors.

 

India is extraordinarily corrupt & increasingly chaotic – Jayant Bhandari Video Interview

Jayant Bhandari, an institutional advisor, chats with Cambridge House Live’s Bridgitte Anderson about the myth behind India’s so-called economic juggernaut. He also reveals his perspective on the junior resource sector and where he sees the North American economy heading long-term. A must-watch video!

 

The Promoter’s Prayer

I’ve been working in the junior exploration space for about five years now and
have been immersed in it my entire life. More often than not I am the youngest person in the room. When the old boys banter about the good old days and stories flow I’m often asked “are you old enough to know who The Pez is?”

The blunt response is, “Does anybody on Howe Street not know who Murray Pezim is?”

Yesterday I read a chapter out of the book Pezim titled “Organizing a Murray Pezim Party.” It talks about the Promoter Of The Year Dinner in November 1987 where over 1000 people payed $250 to pay homage to the Howe Street Legend. Although the evening was filled with jokes, stories, good times and a public proposal from Pezim to his future wife Susan, there was an underlying gloom because of the 1987 October stock market crash.

Due to the status of the markets, the opening remarks for the dinner went like this:

“Good Evening. At this time we would normally call for some type of religious incantation, but with the state of the markets we felt something more powerful was needed, so we dusted off the old Promoter’s Prayer, in hope that the market would look favorably upon us. The last time the Promoter’s Prayer was aired in public was before Murray Pezim drilled hole #76 at Hemlo, and we all know what happened then!”

If there was ever a time when a prayer was needed in the markets, I’d say it is now.

The Promoter’s Prayer

May your Assays always be better than expected
May you always have more Buyers than Sellers
May the Shorts always be trapped
May your Stock always close on an up-tick
May your Underwritings always be oversold
May all your trading Halts be for good news
May a bunch of Americans and Europeans buy up your float
And may you be in Heaven for half-an-hour before the Taxman knows you’re dead.

If you are concerned about mining, exploration, or venture markets visit www.venturecrisis.org for info about how to help breathe some life back into this market.

Follow Jeremy on twitter @JeremyMartin

Appreciating China To Its Fullest

If you didn’t have a chance to see the clash of the titans that took place at the VRIC 12 between Gordon Chang & Frank Holmes then view the debate here. Nearly two months later the bull and bear remain grounded offering continued reasoning behind their cases.

View Gordon Changs earlier post “The Coming Collapse Of China” here. 

While Frank Holmes discusses; Appreciating China To It’s Fullest

By Frank Holmes

Wine expert and social media guru Gary Vaynerchuk attributes his ability to detect subtleties in wine that others might not recognize because of his unique taste-testing as a teen. Because drinking wine was illegal, he says he tasted the flavors associated with wine instead. He not only ate fruits and vegetables, but also chewed on chunks of grass, dirt, tobacco and wood so he could learn to recognize the complex flavors that wine has to offer.

Continue reading

A Time To Hold – Base Metals Outlook From Jim Rogers

If you are not familiar the Jim Rogers Blog, you should get acquainted. Daily financial and economic commentary summed up into a 150 words or less is refreshing in a digital world where content is king, and bountiful.

From the Jim Rogers Blog;

January 16, 2012
“I would suspect you are going to see base metals doing better because you have these elections and government spending and printing a lot of money. I am not selling any of my metals. I am not selling any of my commodities and certainly not my base metals. They were probably among the worst performers in 2011. They are overdue for a nice rally.” - in Economic Times

Related, Powershares DB Base Metals Fund ETF (DBB)

Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.

See the original post here.

A Year In Review – From The Eyes Of Stock News Now

Our friends at Stock New Now have become quite the regulars at Cambridge House Conferences helping spread the word while building the quality and character of the shows. Shelly Kraft, CEO of Stock News Now, is always enthusiastic to get face to face with the speakers, exhibitors and Cambridge House staff to help promote the informative and timely details from inside the industry. Over the past year nearly a hundred interviews have been conducted with public company CEO’s, analysts and entertaining personalities. The folks at SNN have put together a convenient video library of the 2011 conference material for your viewing pleasure.

Stock News Now Cambridge Interviews

Follow Stock News Now on Twitter!